"It may be useful to remember that Christian faith is ultimately dependent upon what actually happened rather than upon the views of historians."
- I. Howard Marshall
Thursday, December 15, 2011
It is neither a foregone conclusion that the Patriots will win because they're the 10-3 Patriots and are helmed by the game's greatest player nor a foregone conclusion that the Broncos will win because Tim Tebow is Jesus' favorite person. Let's look at some angles, here:
Pro Patriots
Belichick's defensive genius has not managed to work any wonders for the Patriots defense, but it sure has helped him craft offensive strategies against some of the better opposing D's. Broncos' defense is tough, but look for calculated compensation.
The Patriots offense is better than the Broncos defense, and it's way better than the Broncos offense. If it comes down to a shootout, Brady wins. And not just because Tebow isn't a shooter, really, but because Brady is Quick-Draw McGraw. And he's got Welker, Branch, Hernandez, the Gronk, et.al. at his quick-and-dirty disposal.
Also, while the Broncos are slow starters, so are the Patriots, kind of. They sort of slow cook a few drives and then start running up the score around the 2nd to 3rd quarters. So the bad news for the Broncos is that while Tebow is used to pulling out a win in the final quarter, that's about the time Brady and company are scoring 2, 3 touchdowns and a field goal. They're both big finishers, but Brady is more used to putting games away in the 4th than Tebow is to scraping them up out of the pit.
Broncos are riding the Tebow train all the way to rapturetown, but they are due for a loss. The magic can't go on forever. Can it?
Where the Patriots' worst-ranked defense tend to show some chops is against the running game and in the short field. And that's, for the most part, Tebow's offensive deal. Also, the Pats have had previous strategic success against running/scrambling QB's, as when they tore up their established defensive playbook and rearranged in the Super Bowl against the Eagles to keep Donovan McNabb constrained to the pocket. It worked. And it could work against Tebow, since he's not a sit back and spot the passer kind of QB.
Pro Broncos
Their D will do a better job against the Patriots all around then the Patriots D will do against Tebow. Even if the Pats do take that "hem him in like McNabb" approach, Tebow has the knack for making things happen against mediocre defenses. And the Patriots D is worse than mediocre. The secondary is pitiful. While the Pats may show some toughness in the short game, if they do decide to make Tebow pass, he will be poised to have his best success passing in his 8 games thus far against the worst-ranked D in the league. Have I mentioned that the Patriots have the worst-ranked defense in the league?
While the 7-1 with Tebow Broncos may be due for a loss, so are the 10-3 Patriots. If we're just playing the win/loss tides and turns, I mean.
Broncos have the matchup history on their side, as Denver is 4-1 against Belichick/Brady. And they're playing in Denver.
Tebow. God loves him. Aside from his divine favor, he comes alive in the 4th quarter, which is typically when the Patriots defense has gone from bad to worse.
My Prediction
I'm saying Patriots win, but not in a blow-out by any stretch. I'd say 20-10, maybe 27-17, 27-20 something like that.
I guess in a prediction you have to be more specific. I'll say 20-10, Patriots. But if the Broncos win, I won't be surprised for the reasons mentioned.
Trackbacks:
Trackback URL: http://thinklings.org/bloo.trackback.php/6566.
Comments on "A Consideration of the Patriots vs. Broncos Matchup this Sunday":
2. Karl
- 12/15/2011 3:19 pm CST
I too give the Pats the edge in the game, for the reasons already covered by Jared and nhe. The Broncos haven't been winning with offense, but with their D. I think Brady and the Pats' O will put up enough points on the Denver D that even with the Pats' poor D, it will be more than the Broncos O can do to keep up. 28-20 Pats.
What I somewhat fear though is that the Pats, who are really but a shadow of their former selves as a football team and who DO stink on defense, will fall to Denver and that their (now much less deserved) reputation as an AFC Power will add to the growing Tebow/Denver mystique beyond what would be justified by a Denver win.
3. Bill
- 12/15/2011 3:25 pm CST
I'm with you in predicting a Patriots win. I'll say 35-17.
Of course, if the Broncos pull this out, I'll probably have to post another Divine Intervention post and me, Karl and nhe will rev up the engines again ;-)
Now, what I want is the Broncos to win (and if they do I predict 21-20). For various reasons: one, I love all the "can you believe that?" factor of this improbable run. And I do like Tebow and want him to do well to help silence the critics (not the critics of his faith, though them getting silenced would be nice too, but more the football critics).
But the main reason I want the Broncos to win is because the Texans are tied with the Pats for the #1 seed in the AFC and I'd love a first round bye and home field throughout the playoffs.
4. nhe
- 12/15/2011 3:50 pm CST
Funny that Karl is adamant about saying he's not a Calvinist, whereas I ensconce myself in TULIPs every chance I get.......yet he and I are in lockstep agreement with our view of God's role in the Tebow hype-machine.......tells me perhaps that the mark of a "true" believer (no matter his theological bents) must be that he knows that God has far more important things to do than concern himself with giving Tebow some Winter Warlock magic corn to help him win football games!......put.one.foot.in.front.of.the.other....
5. Bill
- 12/15/2011 4:03 pm CST
If the Broncos beat the Patriots, you will need to modify your position. That will be a sure sign of God's sovereign work in the NFL in lifting Tebow up to a position of prominence and favor, and it will also be a sure sign of God's work in Jared's life in healing him from a very unhealthy bromantic man-crush of an attachment to Tom Brady.
(speaking of man-crushes, I am starting to wonder about you and Karl :-) /JK!
6. Tony
- 12/15/2011 9:42 pm CST
"Tom Brady, after living a full life, died. When he got to heaven, God was showing him around. They came to a modest little house with a faded Patriots flag in the window. "This house is yours for eternity Tom, said God. "This is very special; not everyone gets a house up here." Tom felt special, indeed, and walked up to his house.
On his way up the porch, he noticed another house just around the corner. It was a huge 3-story mansion with Orange and Blue sidewalks and driveways, a 50 foot tall flagpole with an enormous Broncos logo flag waving, a swimming pool in the shape of a horse, a Broncos logo in every window, and a Tim Tebow jersey on the front door.
Tom looked at God and said "God, I'm not trying to be ungrateful, but I have a question. I was an all-pro QB, I won 3 Super Bowls, and I even went to the Hall of Fame."
God said "So what's your point Tom?"
"Well, why does Tim Tebow get a better house than me?"
God chuckled, and said "Tom, that's not Tim's house, it's mine."
Read more: http://www.gatorcountry.com/swampgas/showthread.php?p=5450595#ixzz1gfKRX8q2
7. Ken Leonard
- 12/15/2011 9:53 pm CST
Asked on Facebook whether he was enjoying the Broncos' success, my pastor (a Broncos fan living in New Hampshire) said:
Enjoying doesn't even begin to tell the story. If we knock off the Patriots this week I'll be like Simeon in the Bible-- "Lord you can now release me"
So, there we are.
9. Bill
- 12/19/2011 8:26 am CST
I had the score wrong but the point spread exactly right (in my earlier comment I said 35-17 - 18 points). The game went as I thought it would - with the Patriots pulling ahead and taking over.
Jared, I've long been curious (and you may have explained this already) - are the Patriots the team everyone in Vermont roots for, or are you on an island in your fandom there?
10. Karl
- 12/19/2011 9:47 am CST
The Patriots are the better team but I wish the Broncos had done a better job of taking care of the football in the 2nd quarter. If they had, they might have given the Pats a real scare or even knocked them off. They had the momentum and totally shot themselves in the foot.
A commentator this morning said something I think I agree with. Something to the effect that just as this loss can't be pinned solely on Tebow but was really a team loss, with more blame going to his teammates than to him (though he could have done more and gets some legit blame for the loss) . . . also, the uncanny streak of wins were "team wins" more than they were "Tebow wins" and his teammates played bigger roles collectively in those wins than Tebow did (though he contributed to the wins and gets some legit credit for them).
11. Jared
- 12/19/2011 10:18 am CST
are the Patriots the team everyone in Vermont roots for, or are you on an island in your fandom there?
Neither. Natives by and large root for Patriots -- when they pay attention to football. Biggest sports here are baseball and soccer. Lots of Red Sox fans. But the native football fans and sports enthusiasts pull for Patriots.
But b/c Vermont is so full of "flatlanders" -- which, by the way, is what has changed the political and cultural landscape of Vermont so much; the natives tend to be libertarian-type conservatives but are overrun in the past 30 years by liberal New Yorkers, et.al. -- the football loyalties also sometimes seem split evenly between Patriots, Jets, and Buffalo Bills. A few Giants fans, but the biggest competitors locally for Pats are Jets and Bills.
Leave a Comment:
I'm surprised, as a Pat fan, that you had this much to say about this game without emphasizing (who I think) is the new BEST football player in the entire NFL - Gronkowski........there is no bigger mismatch in the league at any position than Gronkowski and whoever is covering him.
He's a beast, and as much I love Brady (I'm in my FFB league championship thanks to Brady) I don't think the Patriots would be a playoff team this season without Gronk.
25 TDs in his first 1 and 3/4 seasons - do you know how INSANE that is?????
To me, Gronk is the STORY (and not Tebow) in the NFL this year.
As for this game....since I ultimately do not believe God cares about the score and that much of the Broncos run IS mere coincidence........I think you have it right, Pats 20-10.