"The abnegation of reason is not the evidence of faith, but the confession of despair."

- J.B. Lightfoot
Global Warming Called a "Hoax" on the Huffington Post

This is not something you normally see on the Huffington Post.

From Harold Ambler: Mr. Gore: Apology Accepted.

I'm not a scientist, and I'm certainly not a global warming climate change expert. But he makes a compelling argument. One issue I've had with the current intense focus on CO2 in the atmosphere: what if we're not really warming and are instead entering a cooling phase? I'm more concerned with the adverse effects of cold weather on the earth's inhabitants than the effects of warm weather. Not that I think we can control large-scale climate trends in any event, but I think we need to make sure that we spend our resources on the most effective actions. On that note, I also agree with his conclusion regarding what we should be doing: a full court press to develop other sources of energy and reduce pollution, but not an economy-crippling effort to suppress CO2 (what he calls a "trace gas") and stop development, thus consigning billions of our poorest to dark, smokey misery.

Also, full disclosure: Mr. Ambler is not a right-wing conservative, but rather a proud Obama voter.

Some excerpts:

Mr. Gore has stated, regarding climate change, that "the science is in." Well, he is absolutely right about that, except for one tiny thing. It is the biggest whopper ever sold to the public in the history of humankind.

. . .

it turns out that there is an 800-year lag between temperature and carbon dioxide, unlike the sense conveyed by Mr. Gore's graph. You are probably wondering by now -- and if you are not, you should be -- which rises first, carbon dioxide or temperature. The answer? Temperature. In every case, the ice-core data shows that temperature rises precede rises in carbon dioxide by, on average, 800 years. In fact, the relationship is not "complicated." When the ocean-atmosphere system warms, the oceans discharge vast quantities of carbon dioxide in a process known as de-gassing. For this reason, warm and cold years show up on the Mauna Loa C02 measurements even in the short term. For instance, the post-Pinatubo-eruption year of 1993 shows the lowest C02 increase since measurements have been kept. When did the highest C02 increase take place? During the super El Niño year of 1998.


More under the fold . . .


Carbon dioxide cannot absorb an unlimited amount of infrared radiation. Why not? Because it only absorbs heat along limited bandwidths, and is already absorbing just about everything it can. That is why plotted on a graph, C02's ability to capture heat follows a logarithmic curve. We are already very near the maximum absorption level. Further, the IPCC Fourth Assessment, like all the ones before it, is based on computer models that presume a positive feedback of atmospheric warming via increased water vapor. . . this mechanism has never been shown to exist. Indeed, increased temperature leads to increased evaporation of the oceans, which leads to increased cloud cover (one cooling effect) and increased precipitation (a bigger cooling effect). Within certain bounds, in other words, the ocean-atmosphere system has a very effective self-regulating tendency.

. . .

If not carbon dioxide, what does "drive" climate? I am glad you are wondering about that. In the short term, it is ocean cycles, principally the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the "super cycle" of which cooling La Niñas and warming El Niños are parts. Having been in its warm phase, in which El Niños predominate, for the 30 years ending in late 2006, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation switched to its cool phase, in which La Niñas predominate.
Since that time, already, a number of interesting things have taken place. One La Niña lowered temperatures around the globe for about half of the year just ended, and another La Niña shows evidence of beginning in the equatorial Pacific waters. During the last twelve months, many interesting cold-weather events happened to occur: record snow in the European Alps, China, New Zealand, Australia, Brazil, the Pacific Northwest, Alaska, the Rockies, the upper Midwest, Las Vegas, Houston, and New Orleans. There was also, for the first time in at least 100 years, snow in Baghdad.

. . .

To be told, as I have been, by Mr. Gore, again and again, that carbon dioxide is a grave threat to humankind is not just annoying, by the way, although it is that! To re-tool our economies in an effort to suppress carbon dioxide and its imaginary effect on climate, when other, graver problems exist is, simply put, wrong. Particulate pollution, such as that causing the Asian brown cloud, is a real problem. Two billion people on Earth living without electricity, in darkened huts and hovels polluted by charcoal smoke, is a real problem.

So, let us indeed start a Manhattan Project-like mission to create alternative sources of energy. And, in the meantime, let us neither cripple our own economy by mislabeling carbon dioxide a pollutant nor discourage development in the Third World, where suffering continues unabated, day after day.

[Hat Tip: The Corner]

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Comments on "Global Warming Called a "Hoax" on the Huffington Post":
1. salguod - 01/04/2009 8:48 pm CST

Within certain bounds, in other words, the ocean-atmosphere system has a very effective self-regulating tendency.


I haven't read the article, but that confirms up my non-scientific take on global warming. Basically, my conviction is that God knew what we would do to the planet and designed it to accommodate it.

In other words, God's smart and planned ahead.

2. Evan - 01/05/2009 9:18 am CST

As I've said before, regulating carbon dioxide emissions to fight global warming should strike fear into every American breathing on this planet.

The latest proof? Try the 'livestock tax' being considered by the EPA newly empowered by our Supreme Court to regulate carbon dioxide. How soon until they also consider a 'child tax' for all people who dare pollute our planet by bringing carbon dioxide-breathing children into this world?

3. Bob Sacamento - 01/05/2009 9:21 am CST

Bill,

Thanks for this post!

One issue I've had with the current intense focus on CO2 in the atmosphere: what if we're not really warming and are instead entering a cooling phase?

The data on Continental U.S. temps is readily available to anyone at the U.S. Historical Climatology Network. This is a very extensive collection of data that you can download and view on your very own spreadsheet. If you look at most locales, you will see
1) temps hit a max in the thirties
2) temps bottomed out and started climbing in the seventies
3) around 1998, most locales reached a maximum temperature pretty much like what we had in the thirties
4) since then, temps in most but not all places have either plateaued or actually show a cooling trend

On that note, I also agree with his conclusion regarding what we should be doing: a full court press to develop other sources of energy and reduce pollution, but not an economy-crippling effort to suppress CO2

Yes! There are already plenty of compelling reasons that the public is already informed on for developing new sources of energy. (Including nuclear!) We don't have to sell ourselves on higly speculative (sorry Mr. Gore, that's what global warming is at this point) science to motivate ourselves to do this. And we don't have to consign ourselves to pre-industrial lifestyles either.

4. Matt A - 01/06/2009 1:26 pm CST

For me, the problem with articles like this is that as soon as I start digging a little deeper I find a virtual avalanche of refuting articles. And the refuting articles, in contrast to the original, are written by people with credentials. Make me wonder who's pulling the wool over who's eyes...

5. Bill - 01/06/2009 2:22 pm CST

Matt A,

Thanks for commenting. You may well be right - I am consistently confused by the constant back and forth on this topic.

One thing I do believe, though: the people who are trying to stifle dissent by claiming, loudly, "the Science is settled!" are putting too much faith in mankind's ability to predict anything. I'm probably older than you (heck, I'm older than almost anyone here) and in my life I've seen doomsday after doomsday come and go. And then other things (the economic collapse) sneak up with nobody sounding an alarm at all.

Is the globe warming? Is it caused by humans? Is that bad? These are good questions. I guess one comfort I have is that - if I'm spared to see a few more decades - we'll know eventually. In the meantime, I'm all for us finding alternative sources of energy, polluting less, etc.

But I hope I'm not alone at being skeptical of politicians pointing to crises while simultaneously pointing to their own solutions which, just coincidentally, means a whole lot of power and money heading their way. Been there . . . Staying open-minded but vigilent . . .

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