"The Bible is a remarkable fountain: the more one draws and drinks of it, the more it stimulates thirst."
- Martin Luther
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
Peter Schiff, being completely (astoundingly!) right (even while being scoffed at) in 2006 and 2007:
[H/T Doug Ross]
"When you see the stock market come down and the real estate bubble burst, all of that phony wealth is going to evaporate and all that's going to be left is all the debt we accumulated to foreigners"
True dat.
This is an eye-opener. It's illustrative that people are actually laughing at him while he makes his case. Yet his predictions have come to pass.
He's absolutely right about the way out of this. We all need to get out of debt and start producing.
And, not that anyone cares, since most of these people have been rewarded with even more power, here are some reminders as to how we got here.
And here's a visual guide.
On a personal note: the financial crisis we're in is quite frustrating for me. I remember the dot-com bubble. Billions and billions of dollars (that only ever existed on paper) disappeared almost overnight. Then the energy trading bubble - this one I was quite close to. Again, billions of dollars that only really existed in the questionable mark to market values of commodity derivatives. And you probably remember WorldCom as well.
And here we go again. Do we ever learn? The reason these things keep happening is attributable to our greed, to our desire to get rich quick without earning it, and to live beyond our means in a wonderland where the bills never really come due. Well, they're coming due now.
As an aside, Government is probably not going to be the answer here. Government tried to "fix" the Enron/WorldCom problem by passing the Sarbanes-Oxley act, which did some good, I suppose, but also placed huge burdens on all the lowly accountants and IT people in publicly traded companies, and cost companies millions and millions in formerly productive dollars that now went to auditing firms. And, you may have noticed, was absolutely no help at all in preventing Fanny Mae and Freddie Mac from blowing chunks.
Get out of debt. Start producing. Good advice.
Trackbacks:
Trackback URL: http://thinklings.org/bloo.trackback.php/5053.
Comments on "My Nominee For Treasury Secretary":
2. Bill
- 11/18/2008 7:53 am CST
"Lastly, while he was right on, I wonder how he has done over a long period of time. Is he a one-trick pony?"
That's a great question. I don't know - and you're right, this could be one of those "even a stopped clock is right twice a day" things. I don't know.
3. Bill
- 11/18/2008 8:51 am CST
In listening to it again, I have to give Schiff credit. He is not just right in general, he's right in specifics. I think he's legit.
4. Roy
- 11/18/2008 10:28 am CST
Sigh. All the data, and the interpretation, too. I'm reminded of Ps 2's laughter. God need not use thunderbolts when foolishness works so well.
My tickle bone reached critical when one of the guys encouraged us to not expect any new taxes for the next several years.
5. Matt A
- 11/18/2008 11:51 am CST
I tend to think this guy looks like a genius right now because he always predicts doom and gloom and we finally have some doom and gloom. Check out this US News article for more:
permabear
And, this is why I don't watch TV news: every talking head has to have an extreme position. It's either sunshine-and-roses or the-end-of-the-world. I'm not going to move all my investments to gold... maybe just some of them.
6. SR
- 11/18/2008 12:31 pm CST
From what I've seen, those like Schiff (who is Ron Paul's financial advisor) who follow the Austrian school of economics have been better at predicting and explaining recent economic trends than the Keynesians. They're a lot more depressing to listen to, though.
Leave a Comment:
If nothing else, this is a good illustration of how we need to treat other people when we disagree with them. It's sad that he was pretty much treated as an idiot by all of his fellow "experts".
Also, I got the feeling that Fox News only had him on there to be a dissenting voice in the crowd, not because of his predictions, per se.
Lastly, while he was right on, I wonder how he has done over a long period of time. Is he a one-trick pony? What is he saying right now? What is his analysis of 2009? Will he ever hold an optimistic view? He was debating people who are pretty intelligent, although they didn't always act like it.