What is next?

Good question.

It should be really interesting to see how this thing swings. Firstly, it will be interesting to see how Huckabee addresses CPAC and the response he gets there. The pundits have all given McCain the nomination, but there is still plenty of room for Huck to take over. Not just mathematically, but with a little momentum, this could get fun for the Huck. McCain will never lose his frontrunner status. Bad news bears for him. Like the Giants in the Superbowl, Huck could Eli this thing to last-minute victory.

It should be mentioned that 80% of Romney's voters have described themselves as conservative while 75% of Huck's voters have called themselves conservative. McCain's conservative voters never rise to more than 50% of his vote. It's likely, given Romney followers' McCain hatred and basic conservative tenets that Huck will see the majority of Romney support venture his way.

As the Democratic primary continues its pace to a rapid boil with the 50/50 split, I expect most independent voters in open primary states to start picking between Obama and Clinton instead of voting in the Republican primary. This obviously benefits Huckabee & Paul. (Don't forget Ron Paul - he's not out, either.)

Certainly, McCain will win states like WA and MD, but Huckabee certainly now has play in LA, KS, TX, OH, PA, VA, et al.


Romney deserves some credit, as AM mentioned in comments from an earlier post. Romney made the best decision, from a business perspective. While I didn't necessarily predict this, I did think out loud that this might happen. As of Dec 31st, Mitt had spent over $35 million of his own money to get to just above Huckabee. We won't know the final figure for another six weeks, but Mitt could have spent over $50 million of his own money on this campaign. The candidate who thinks with his head (as opposed to his heart) made the heady decision to stop investing in a product that isn't selling. Give him credit for not letting ambition cloud his view. This is likely why he's such an incredible businessman.

I don't think this is over. I predict a mini-Huckabee surge. If he starts getting momentum, watch out. We'll see if the gloves come off between the he and Mac. I can't wait until the next debate. It's either going to be very boring or very exciting, but it can't be down the middle . . .

To be fair, Romney never treated his run as a business decision. I know you are speaking metaphorically, but it seems a little demeaning to Romney to compare his campaign as a business decision. He gave tremendous energy and personal resources to get a job where he was going to donate all his salary to charity anyways. It never had anything to do with his ego or his personal enrichment (i.e. nothing to do with business or profit--as McCain would say: "he ran for patriotism and not for profit").

Huckabee on the other hand; well, let's just say I am skepticle of his motives in staying in the race. Is it his ego or his desire for some kind of upgraded speaking fee or a future job? Will it really help the conservative movemnt? Apart from social issues, I don't even believe Huck is more conservative than McCain in anything (and that's saying something) not to mention Huck's ability to be competent compared to McCain.

All I am saying is that Huck has one point in my book and enough demerits to put him deep in the red.

The reality is that McCain has won, and there is nothing that can stop it at this point. McCain already has 60% of the delegates he needs to guarantee him the nomination, while Huckabee has only about 1/4 of the delegates that McCain has. Furthermore, even Romney has more delegates than Huckabee, and if he simply tells his delegates to support McCain, which is likely given his speech today and the fact that most are from northern states, McCain already has over 85% of the delgates he needs.

Huckabee has no possibility for a last second miracle because the score is nowhere close to being tied (as it was in the Super Bowl). A closer analogy would be the Giants down 75-17 late in the third quarter, and praying for a 58 point comback in a little over a quarter against a much better opponent.

Ain't gonna happen. It's already over.

Governor Huckabee does not have to get to 1191 Delegates. He just has to keep Senator McCain from getting there, and that is very doable.

Don't count out the real Man from Hope just yet.

"Governor Huckabee does not have to get to 1191 Delegates. He just has to keep Senator McCain from getting there, and that is very doable."

Exactly. This thing is far from over - and if you think it is, you add poorly and/or underestimate the power of Mike's candidacy.


I know that I am biased, but please consider the fact that four months ago, if someone had told you that Romney, Giuliani, and Thompson would all drop out of this race, but Huck would still be in it, you'd have laughed them off as silly. He is an excellent communicator who pulled four (almost five) states out of nowhere just a couple of days ago. Those states were supposed to go to McCain. The polls said so. The pundits said so. Everyone thought so. What happened? Mike Huckabee went into those states and campaigned his butt off.

Next up? Kansas. He's campaigning there all day tomorrow. If he wins just one state (KS) on Saturday (he could win two), you will begin to see momentum swing in his direction, beginning with free media exposure. (remind anyone of the August Iowa Straw Poll or the FRC Value Voters Conference?)


As McCain said, let's calm down and see how this plays out before playing armchair quarterback and dismissing things outright. I recognize that a Huckabee victory is a long shot, but if he's so out of it, why did CNN spend 20 minutes talking about his candidacy during 360 tonight? (I watched it for the first time ever - I promise)

OK, it's late and I got too snarky in that last comment. I apologize for my attempt at cleverness. My remarks may have been hurtful. I shouldn't have said some of those things, JDW. I apologize. Mark - feel free to edit that paragraph out, if you believe it's necessary. [Note: **Edit Completed Per Request**]

And the fact is, McCain doesn't have a majority of the vote, just a plurality. To my mind, that makes it a little early to declare him the nominee presumptive.

Herein I reveal my political ignorance....Who gets Romney's delegates? I have researched it and keep getting different answers. Does anyone here actually know? I mean, not just speculation, but an educated answer with a source reference if possible. Thanks in advance.

From what I understand, the rules for Republicans state that if a candidate suspends their campaign (as opposed to drop out), his/her delegates are no longer obligated to vote for him/her, but are allowed to if they desire. (Did that help?)

This scenario puts Romney in the best possible position, politically (other than winning the nomination). If he decides to have all of his delegates go to McCain, then it really is mostly over, but the longer he waits, assuming Huck gains momentum (which is no small assumption), the harder it will be for him to not be seen as manipulating the race.

He might just be waiting until the convention to see what kind of power play he might make. Given what happened in WV, it seems apparent that Ron Paul would give his delegates to Huck, should Huck be viable at the convention. It might be helpful to add that small handful of delegates to Huck's total, since it could end up there in determining how far Huck needs to go.

One last comment for me in this post (oh and thanks for the retraction--I didn't need it, but I've just been hearing that meme reapeated constantly about Romney, including by Brian Williams last night).

As I was saying. The only reason Huck is in is because he's stayed in. The only reason why the other candidates are out (they could have continued if they really wanted to) is because they dropped out. Romney effectively closed the race yesterday by saing the republicans need to start prepping for November--effectively endorsing McCain.

Also, look for McCain to throw Huckabee under the straight talk express. The chatter I hear is that Huck has no chance to get VP slot.

I'm waiting on a Conservative. My vote will go to Duncan Hunter.

Wait! Duncan is out as well! Hmmmm. The Huckster will get my vote. Even though, Pressler and he don't see eye to eye.

"Also, look for McCain to throw Huckabee under the straight talk express. The chatter I hear is that Huck has no chance to get VP slot."

I think there's a better shot at Huck getting the nomination (which is a long shot) than him getting the veep offer by McCain. I also think that Huck knows that. People who suggest that he's still in this to secure a veep nod are wrong - I think he knows that it won't happen. I genuinely think that he is aiming for a brokered convention. If that happens, all bets are off and things will get super fun super fast.

Honestly, the veep offer is Romney's to lose, if he wants it. This thing would be over in two seconds if Romney asked his delegates to go to McCain, but he hasn't explicitly done so and I don't think he will unless he and McCain agree on something big soon. (Apparently, McCain is trying to meet with Mitt)

"Herein I reveal my political ignorance....Who gets Romney's delegates? I have researched it and keep getting different answers. Does anyone here actually know? I mean, not just speculation, but an educated answer with a source reference if possible. Thanks in advance."

UPDATE: After listnening around, it is apparently up to each individual state as to what they want to do with delegates. I've heard a rumor that Michigan, a state that Romney won, will release Romney's delegates from their obligation to support him. What this means is that Huck could have more support than his numbers currently show. Conversely, it could also mean that Mac has more support, as well. Once again, we won't know for certain until the convention.

Personally, I'd rather see McCain handle this a bit differently, if indeed he emerges as the nominee. I'd like to see him pull both Romney and Huckabee on board the campaign as prospective Cabinet nominees--I'd think Romney at Treasury, maybe Huck in Tommy Thompson's old slot at Health & Human Services (or whatever it is)--and pick someone whose economic credentials are inarguable for the VP slot. One good pick would be SC Governor Mark Sanford; another, rather unconventional pick (suggested by Pat Toomey of the Club for Growth as a possibility) that I would quite like to see is Steve Forbes. (He was my favored candidate in 2000.)

Or in digging a bit further, maybe not Sanford--there are some fairly nasty charges leveled against him out there. I don't know if there's any truth to any of them, but where there's smoke, the Dems can make a smokescreen.