"And do you now begin to see why Christianity has always said that the devil is a fallen angel? That is not a mere story for the children. It is a real recognition of the fact that evil is a parasite, not an original thing. The powers which enable evil to carry on are powers given it by goodness."

- C.S. Lewis
What To Do When The Facts Change?

From Michael Barone's latest article on National Review Online:

During the Democratic primary season, all the party’s candidates veered hardly a jot or tittle from the narrative that helped the Democrats sweep the November 2006 elections. Iraq is spiraling into civil war, we invaded unwisely and have botched things ever since, no good outcome is possible, and it is time to get out of there as fast as we can.

In January 2007, when George W. Bush ordered the surge strategy, which John McCain had advocated since the summer of 2003, Barack Obama informed us that the surge couldn’t work. The only thing to do was to get out as soon as possible.

That stance proved to be a good move toward winning the presidential nomination — but it was poor prophecy. It is beyond doubt now that the surge has been hugely successful, beyond even the hopes of its strongest advocates, like Frederick and Kimberly Kagan. Violence is down enormously, Anbar and Basra and Sadr City have been pacified, Prime Minister Maliki has led successful attempts to pacify Shiites as well as Sunnis, and the Iraqi parliament has passed almost all of the “benchmark” legislation demanded by the Democratic Congress — all of which Barack Obama seems to have barely noticed or noticed not at all. He has not visited Iraq since January 2006 and did not seek a meeting with Gen. David Petraeus when he was in Washington.
Without delving too deep into current politics, the fact that the party and candidate of "change" seem unable to change their proposed Iraq policy of precipitous withdrawal in the face of such heartening success really troubles me.

Thankfully, not everyone is ignoring the changing tide in Iraq.
That’s not true of all critics of the Bush administration and its military leaders. The editorial writers of the Washington Post have been paying close and careful attention. And even though they may be temperamentally more inclined to favor Obama’s candidacy over John McCain’s, they have not been unwilling to take Obama to task for his inattention to American success. Obama, the Post noted tartly on June 7, “has become unreasonably wedded to a year-old proposal to rapidly withdraw all U.S. combat forces from the country — a plan offered when he wrongly believed that the situation would only worsen as long as American troops remained.”

On June 18, a Post editorial made the same point again and noted that Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyard Zebari told Obama in a phone conversation that a precipitate withdrawal would embolden al-Qaeda and Iran. But Obama told Jake Tapper of ABC News that he said no such thing. Perhaps he’s still trying to avoid facing facts that undermine his narrative. Which might also explain why he said he was willing to meet Mahmoud Ahmadinejad without preconditions while he has not been able to find time to meet with Petraeus.

. . .

If George W. Bush was wrong about the surge from summer 2003 to January 2007, Barack Obama has been wrong about it from January 2007 to today. John McCain seems to have been right on it all along. When asked why he changed his position on an issue, John Maynard Keynes said: “When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?” What say you, Sen. Obama?

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Comments on "What To Do When The Facts Change?":
1. Bird - 06/21/2008 4:01 pm CDT

John Maynard Keynes said: “When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?”

I love that quote from Keynes. I think I first heard that on "Meet the Press." (Rest in peace, Tim.)

2. Andrew - 06/21/2008 5:55 pm CDT

My biggest beef with Obama is his seeming perpetual pessimism about Iraq. Of course, he was against the war from the start, which does give him more credibility than say, Hillary Clinton.

One thing that did make me hopeful about his potential Iraq policy, though he caught heat from the Clinton campaign about it, was the fact that his campaign when asked about their strategy over the next few years, the campaign said that it would change as the circumstances did. I believe the rhetoric about Iraq is mostly political, playing to the wide disillusionment on the war. Any good President must know that foreign affairs are infinitely complex and ever-changing, and as different situations come up, one must be willing to shift. This is also true on the other end with John McCain. He can say stay the course right now, but there may soon come a time where things change and the course we are on isn't getting us to the right place.

While ideology is important, I tend to try and ignore candidates when they give specifics about foreign policy, because it's something that can't really be planned.

3. Scott - 06/23/2008 2:13 pm CDT

While the surge may indeed be working I don't think that that changes the fact that we need to get out. Afaik (and correct me if I'm wrong, I may well be) the only reason we were able to "surge" in the first place is to send our men and women back with greater frequency than originally intended. Thus placing a greater burden on them. I've been against the war from the beginning as well and just because a short term solution (the surge) has had what is for all we know a short term gain doesn't make staying in there (and thus going further into debt) the right thing to do.

4. Bill - 06/23/2008 2:42 pm CDT

"While the surge may indeed be working I don't think that that changes the fact that we need to get out."

I think this is what I'm on about :-) - why is "we need to get out" a fact? What are the benefits and the costs in getting out now? What is the humane/right thing to do? Why are the current gains only short term? Would staying in make them long term? What happens when we leave?

Being against it from the start doesn't change the fact that we are there now. From a current-state point of view, what's the right thing to do?

You mentioned going further in debt. Is this strictly an economic issue? Again, on a cost-benefit scale, what will cost us the most in the long run? Will leaving now save us lots of costs later, or have us facing even more costs later?

Interested in your thoughts.

5. Andrew - 06/23/2008 5:09 pm CDT

Being against it from the start doesn't change the fact that we are there now.

True dat. You could apply the same sentiment to a lot of political problems.

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